Sunday, December 7, 2008

No BCS Controversy Here

It's decided. The BCS Championship Game will be between Oklahoma and Florida on January 8th. It'll be a great matchup.

Here are the Top 10 BCS standings:
  1. Oklahoma
  2. Florida
  3. Texas
  4. Alabama
  5. USC
  6. Utah
  7. Texas Tech
  8. Penn State
  9. Boise State
  10. Ohio State
What controversy remains about the BCS standings and bowl bids seems to be focused on the plight of Texas and USC, who are perceived by some to be wrongly left out of the big game. The Longhorns biggest gripe is that they beat OU in Dallas in October, and should not be ranked below them as a result.

However, the computers see things correctly. Yes, Texas beat OU, but Oklahoma, by a wide margin, had a significantly stronger schedule.

In fact, as you look at the Final Top 25 BCS Standings, Oklahoma has played and won more games against teams that made this list than any other team in the nation. Oklahoma finished 5-1 against teams on the Top 25 BCS Standings: they beat 7th ranked Texas Tech, 11th ranked TCU, 12th ranked Cincinnati, 13th ranked Oklahoma State, and 21st ranked Missouri. They lost to 3rd ranked Texas.

By comparison, Florida was 2-1 against teams on the Top 25 BCS Standings. The Gators beat 4th ranked Alabama and 15th ranked Georgia. They lost to 25th ranked Mississippi.

Texas was 3-1 against the teams on the Top 25 BCS list. The Longhorns beat top-ranked Oklahoma, 13th ranked Oklahoma State and 21st ranked Missouri. They lost to 7th ranked Texas Tech.

Besides the head-to-head game with OU, Texas played three common opponents with OU (Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech). OU beat all of these three. Texas lost to Texas Tech.

So the big difference for the Sooners, and the reason they wound up ranked ahead of Texas, was the fact that they beat Texas Tech, while also beating Cincinnati and TCU. Those three wins were enough to trump the head-to-head consideration. And as well they should. Cincinnati wound up winning the Big East and earning a BCS bowl bid, while TCU finished 2nd in the Mountain West.

Lesson learned: don't pad your non-conference schedule with creampuffs. Your schedule strength will likely determine your BCS berth.

As for USC, it only finished with a 2-0 record against teams on the Top 25 BCS Standings. They beat 10th ranked Ohio State and 17th ranked Oregon. They also beat Virginia and Notre Dame, but unfortunately for the Trojans, neither the Cavaliers nor the Irish ended the year with very good records. That, and the fact that the Pac 10 had only 2 teams on the Top 25 list.

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