We had a great time. Apart from the drinks and the Blackjack and the nightclubs, our tour guide, Frank, smartly recommended a 50-minute massage Saturday morning at the Spa, and steered us to the Blue Man Group show on Saturday night. Great choices both.
Here now are my notes regarding the Blackjack tables, for what it's worth:
The eight-deck green-chip tables at the Venetian got a lot of business from our group, and suffice it say, only Frank walked out ahead. I dutifully lost all of my gambling allotment. My only redeeming takeaway from the experience was the fact that I did not go over my budget in an attempt to recoup my losses.
Upon returning to Charlotte, I saw Frank a few days later at his office. We both agreed the trip was a great success, and vowed to make a return vigil next year. At that point, Frank handed me a copy of his secret weapon-- a How To book on Blackjack. I took it home with me last weekend, and promptly devoured it.
The book was written by Frank Scoblete and is entitled Best Blackjack. It is a very easy read, written with an honest and self-effacing style I enjoy. Scoblete is a Vegas junkie (he's written similar books on slots and craps). But what struck me was how easily one could apply several casino-beating strategies. Some nuggets:
In blackjack, the win rate dispersion has been calculated through the use of millions of computer simulations, and has been summarized as follows:
48% of the hands are won by the house
44% of the hands are won by the player
8% of the hands are a tie, and the player keeps his money (a push)
These odds assume the player employs no defined strategy, and relies on his wits and the luck of the draw. If a player is ever to increase his odds, there are only two ways to do it:
1) Use the Basic Strategy
2) Use a card counting strategy
A combination of these two approaches will gain the player a slight edge over the house, assuming few mistakes are made and the player spreads his bets accordingly.
The first strategy, which is named (with little imagination) The Basic Strategy, is simply a matrix of pre-determined decisions each player must make (either hit, double or stay) based on his hand and the dealer's face card. You can find these matrices throughout the Internet. A good blackjack player will commit this matrix to memory, and will rely on it without having to think. Scoblete describes it like bicycle riding-- once you've used it once, it becomes second nature. Of course, practice make perfect.
The second strategy, card counting, was a big surprise to me. I had heard the term before, and knew it was a way to beat the casinos, but I never had anyone explain it to me. I assumed it took a special mental discipline in which each and every card was memorized, a laborious process that the average Joe could not possibly master-- like me, for instance.
However, card counting, at least the technique that Scoblete recommends, could not be easier. Essentially, the player is not memorizing each and every card-- rather, he is assigning values to the cards displayed on the table. There are only three values to assign, either -1, 0 or +1, which is used to come to a quick calculation during every hand. The cards 2 through 6 are each assigned the value of +1, while the cards 7 through 9 are each assigned the number 0. Tens and face cards, including aces, are each assigned a -1.
During the hand, the player will quickly add these values, and arrive at a count. If more low cards (2 through 6) are played in that hand than high cards (10 thru ace), then the player will have a net positive number. If more high cards have been played, then the player will arrive at a net negative number. This is known as the High-Low Counting System.
If the player arrives at a positive count, then he knows that the remaining deck has more high cards in it than low cards. Since lots of high cards remain, that means your chances of being dealt one are higher, and statistically, this increases the players chances to win (again, a conclusion arrived at through the use of millions of computer simulations).
How does the player use this to his advantage? With a net positive count, especially one that is consistently +3 or higher, the player will increase his bets so as to capitalize on his greater chances of winning.
The not-so big secret in blackjack is to bet big when the odds favor you, and to bet small, or at the table minimum, when they don't. The only way to know this with any degree of certainty is through card counting.
Scoblete is funny in how he advises readers to employ card counting techniques. His 10 Commandments of Card Counting:
1) Thou shalt not let anyone at your table know that you can count cards.
2) Thou shalt not let the pit people know you count cards.
3) Thou shalt not let the pit people know you play basic strategy.
4) Thou shalt not let the pit people know you've read a book on blackjack.
5) Thou shalt look like a gambler and not a card counter when betting.
6) Thou shalt not give advice to others, even if they are playing stupidly.
7) Thou shalt not look cool, calm and calculating. Show emotion.
8) Thou shalt publicly proclaim, if asked, that card counting is impossible because you can't remember all those cards.
9) Thou shalt leave the casino when you feel the least bit of heat from the pit people-- they are on to you.
10) Thou shalt not covet a gambler's lucky streak, or throw good money after bad, or lose your composure.
My conclusion: the Basic Strategy and card counting are so easy to employ that it is amazing to me that everyone doesn't do it. The simple fact is that very few people have taken the time to learn. Most visitors to casinos are schmucks just like I was last week-- out to have a good time and not inquisitive or motivated enough to try to learn how the games work.
As I have now come to appreciate, the true joy in a casino comes from the matching of wits and abilities with the house. The few who've come to this appreciation have the best chances of turning their visit into a self-funded vacation! Not that it'll happen every time (Lady Luck frowns on the card counters too), but your odds are squarely in your favor. And it's good to have odds.
Scoblete recommends that a player only use a 4 to 1 spread in his bets, and never more than double your bets hand to hand. This is the best way to fly under the radar, and still accumulate a nice pile of chips.
After reading Scoblete's book, I have printed out the Basic Strategy matrix and have begun to practice in my head the blackjack hands. I can't wait to get back to Vegas and try this out.
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